Greater London Assembly report says Ulez expansion ‘working better than expected’

Image: Ulez sign

Significant reduction in pollutant emissions

The contentious extension of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) across the entirety of London is reportedly ‘exceeding expectations,’ according to fresh data from City Hall.

A recent report published by the Greater London Authority examining the first half-year since the expansion of ULEZ to all London boroughs, reveals a significant reduction in pollutant emissions in 2023 with the ULEZ in effect, compared to a scenario without it:

• In outer London, Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions from cars and vans are estimated to be reduced by 13% and 7% respectively, equivalent to taking 200,000 cars off the road for a year.
• Particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) from cars in outer London are estimated to be 22% lower than they would have been without the expansion, exceeding expectations by 6%.
• Across all metrics, these impacts are consistent with, and often exceed, Transport for London’s (TfL) projections made during the consultation for the outer London expansion.

The report says: ‘All ULEZ policies in total have had a dramatic impact on improving air quality across the capital’.

Harmful roadside NO2 concentrations are estimated to be:

• 21 per cent lower in outer London than they would have been without the ULEZ and its expansions.
• 53 per cent lower in central London than they would have been without the ULEZ and its expansions.
• 24 per cent lower in inner London than they would have been without the ULEZ and its expansions.

The findings suggest that London’s roadside air quality is improving at a faster rate than the average for the rest of England. In 2014, the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) level disparity between London and the rest of England was 20 µg/m3; it has now reduced to less than 5 µg/m3.

Image: Ulez signage

Compliance with Ulez standards at 96.2% 

The ULEZ expansion has brought five million more Londoners within its remit, and the City Hall report indicates that outer London, historically plagued by poorer air quality than the national average, now has pollution levels much closer to the rest of the country. In just the first six months, roadside NO2 levels in outer London have decreased by up to 4.4% compared with  expectations of what it would be without the ULEZ expansion.

Compliance with the ULEZ standards has also exceeded projections, with 96.2% of all vehicles in London now compliant, up from 90.9% in June 2023.

There are now significantly fewer older, more polluting vehicles on London’s roads, with a reduction of 90,000 non-compliant vehicles detected daily in February 2024 compared to June 2023—a 53% decrease in non-compliant vehicles in the first six months.

The Mayor’s office describes this preliminary data as showing ‘significant progress,’ with a comprehensive report expected in early 2025 to cover the first full year of the London-wide ULEZ expansion. This report will be supported by an independent advisory group of experts.

The Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said:

“The decision to expand the ULEZ London-wide was a difficult one, but necessary to save lives, protect children’s lungs and help reduce the risk of Londoners developing asthma, dementia and a host of other health issues.

“Today’s report shows that the ULEZ is working even better than expected. The expansion to outer London is already having a significant effect – driving down levels of pollution, taking old polluting cars off our roads and bringing cleaner air to millions more Londoners.

“London’s air quality is improving at a faster rate than the rest of England, and 96 per cent of vehicles are now compliant, with tens of thousands of Londoners benefitting from our scrappage scheme.

“It’s thanks to our bold policies, including ULEZ, that we are now set to get London’s air to within legal limits by 2025, 184 years earlier than previously projected. But there’s still more to do and I promise to continue taking bold action – including more to clean up out air and rivers – as we build a fairer, greener London for everyone.’’