Teachers braced for briefing on impact of falling school rolls on Hounslow

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Lower birth rate means less money for schools

Teachers in LB Hounslow will receive a briefing on Thursday (16 July) on how falling school rolls nationally are likely to impact the Borough of Hounslow.

London Councils warned in February that falling pupil numbers in London largely due to the lower birth rate could slash £45m from schools over the next four years.

School Capacity Survey data from all 32 boroughs shows a forecast decline of 3.8% in Year 7 places and 2.5% in reception places between 2025/6 and 2029/30. Inner London faces the sharpest drop, as demand for Year 7 places is expected to fall by 7.6% and reception places by 6.4% over the next four years.

Some schools are at only 40% capacity currently. Cllr Max Mosley, Cabinet Member for Finance and Resources told The Chiswick Calendar the William Hogarth Primary School in Chiswick was one of them but later accepted that this was not accurate.

Head teacher Avril Stockley confirmed the school is currently at 71% occupancy and there is a waiting list for two classes.

At its last Ofsted inspection three years ago, William Hogarth was judged to be ‘Good’, offering ‘Outstanding’ personal development.

“School rolls are falling nationally because people just aren’t having enough children”, said Max.

There are several schools in the borough which are struggling financially, he added.  “It isn’t a reflection on the quality of the schools”.

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Hounslow schools projected £19 million deficit by 2029 unless Council acts

Local councils are responsible for paying for the day to day running of schools, but the money comes from the Department for Education on a cost per pupil basis.

“We can help with advice on ways of making savings and with restructuring schools, but we can’t just give them more money”, explained Max.

The briefing on Thursday will not be about job cuts, he stresses, but it is a heads up that this is a growing problem, and one that is outside the Council’s control.

“The tide is against us”, he said.

The Council will launch a year-long consultation in September on reorganisation, which may eventually mean job cuts and even school closures.

Whereas the borough’s schools budget has been in surplus for the past three years – £2.8 million in the black – now it is in deficit – £2.5 million in the red. The projection is that by 2029 that will grow to a deficit of £19 million unless they do something about it.

His hope is that the government will make up the shortfall created by falling rolls. Rather than closing schools the ideal would be that they recognised smaller classes benefitted children an increased the payments per head, but unless that happens the Council will be forced to reorganise its schools provision he warned.

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